Our paper on predicting sovereign risk factors from media stories has just been released at the SSRN. We confirm that big data techniques help when there is no (or too little) market data available.
Very happy to see the work on productivity slowdown in the EU being released in the EIB Working Paper Series. We show that firm-level financial conditions matter greatly for aggregate productivity dynamics. Reducing collateral bottlenecks could more than double the effectiveness of financial leverage in spurring productivity growth in the Western Europe between 2014-17.
We develop a new micro-founded framework to measure contributions of financial factors to the allocative efficiency component. Happy to share the most recent version of the paper here.
Happy to share that my contribution to the recent Springer volume on mathematics and statistics has just been released. In the short Introduction to Independent Counterfactuals, I offer the basic principles and guidelines how to find counterfactual outcome variables independent from the effects of given covariates.
A spin-off post from our recent study has just been published by VoxEU.org. It underpins the role of corporate health in building up job market resilience. We estimate that 3-month liquidity buffers flatten out the impact of the pandemic on the job market sentiment in EU.
How was the Covid-19 shock transmitted to the labour market in the EU? The sneak peek of the analysis using a novel approach with Google Trends has just been published in the EIB Economic Briefing.
Marcin Wolski, PhD
European Investment Bank
E-mail: M.Wolski (at) eib.org
Phone: +352 43 79 88708
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